So there's a lot of buzz, it seems, in the US blogosphere that Joe Lieberman is now considered a close confidant of George W Bush. Additionally, there are considerable rumours (endorsed by the Washington Post so it must be true) that Lieberman is being lined up to replace the completely stark raving bonkers Donald 'unknown unknowns' Rumsfeld.
This would be marginally clever. Rovian. Get rid of one of the focal points of Democratic criticism (that Rumsfeld is a psychopath who is not fit for command, and who has been consistently wrong on issues involving the life and death of US troops) and replace him with an Iraq hawk who is (at least nominally) a Democrat. A Fox News Democrat, but a Democrat.
Personally, I think that it is not suitably Rovian, even for a Rove who is off his game, what with that Plame affair picking up steam again.
Here's what I think this could just be really about. You might want to be sitting down, because it's either near-genius punditry or you'll laugh so much that standing is dangerous. Besides, this is going to be long. Tiredness kills.
This is about Joe Lieberman for VP.
Yeah, I know, we had that already, and he didn't get the job. But this time the Supreme Court aren't involved, so hold your horses. Here's the reasoning:
Cheney is now a political liability. Every time something bad happens, more turdblossom fertilizer sticks to him. In the weeks and months ahead we have a few nice developing stories that will make life interesting for him, and might just put enough stress on his heart to have him resign for health reasons:
- The Energy Task Force. You know, that thing where the vice president worked out a national strategy for the US, and got the help of loads of oil company executives to work it out. He refused to release any documents, the oil CEOs were not forced to testify under oath to the Senate, but somehow it has still emerged (ugh, WashPost again) that they were involved. This was probably illegal, is certainly going to prove unpopular, and is a clear misuse of executive privilege. If any of those CEOs decides to testify under oath, expect Mr Cheney to clutch his right arm and say "My ... my ... hea-"
- The AIPAC trial. We haven't heard much about this one: several Pentagon staffers are being tried for allegedly leaking classified information (what, them?) to Israel. It's almost a year since one of Cheney's cronies, Douglas Feith (the "fucking stupidest guy on the face of the earth" according to General Tommy Franks), was forcibly resigned from the administration. The people on trial worked with or for him. Expect a lot of interest to head Feith's way, and the year of political distance from Cheney to be not quite enough. "No it's not my arm... you numbskull... it's... my.. hea-"
- Abramoff. Who knows? The inquiry reaches pretty high up by all accounts, and if Bush/Cheney didn't know he was helping them with support, it would be surprising. Just a guess. "Could someone fetch the vice president a glass of water?"
- Those torture tapes from Abu Ghraib. The ones Seymour Hersh said are really bad, and the Pentagon has been trying to block. Sooner or later, they will surface or be released, and Cheney's insistance that CIA folks be allowed to lean on people a little will look pretty bad. "Has anyone seen the remote control for the VP's defibrillator?"
- As we've seen, Patrick "Elliot Ness" Fitzgerald is still on Karl Rove's case, and there is renewed pressure there. Do we expect Rove not to rat on the already "mostly dead" Cheney if it'll get him and his boss off the hook? Investigations into Libby suggest that Cheney knew about the plan to out Plame. If Rove has said anything new, expect US hospitals to begin rubbing their hands at the notion of a Dick Cheney Cardiac Wing. "... need... a... new... heart!"
So we have a few things that might come up in the next few months that will make Mr Cheney a bit uncomfortable. With Cheney's approval rating as low as 19% already, it seems plausible that Bush could Throw Cheney From The Train.
And then, what to do? The president needs a new VP. Condi is looking like a prize idiot in Europe. Rumsfeld is surely on the way out. You have to pick someone good, first time, someone nobody will have any questions about. (There's no Senate vote, but this is about rebuilding credibility). People are pressing him to clear the decks, appoint new people, like his real father (Ronald Reagan) had to do after Iran/Contra. Who to choose?
There's pretty much nobody in the Cabinet who is untarnished by some sort of scandal. There's Abramoff and doubtless many other scandals in the wings. How can you pick a VP who is sure to be free of it? First, pick someone Tom Delay never helped out. This narrows down the field. Mostly to Democrats.
Then there's the incumbency issue. When it comes to an election, or (heaven forbid!) Bush's impeachment, whoever is in the VP's seat has incumbent advantage. Being Dubya's annointed successor is not exactly a PR godsend right now, so expect Republicans not to be in a hurry to fill that seat.
Next, approval ratings. Bush is on the verge of needing a 'national unity' administration to pull him out of the ratings hole he is in. Picking from across the aisle would really help with the PR problem. Even though Joe Lieberman's seat on that side of the aisle is usually empty, he's still a Democrat, and let's not forget that Wolfowitz and Perle were too, so the man has form. The pick would need to be someone with a low risk of ever being elected president (see above re: incumbency - the last thing Bush will want to do is piss off the base by annointing a Democratic successor). So someone who is loathed by most of the Democratic party would be a good choice. Perhaps someone who is on Fox News a lot.
Finally, Iraq. Bush needs someone who shares the philosophy. Someone who has been criticising John Murtha's call for a withdrawal. (OK so John McCain fits the bill here. But McCain wants to be president. See incumbency problem above).
Now here's the Rovian twist. If any Democrat criticises the choice of Lieberman for VP, they can say you were for him before you were against him. A perfect way to bring up flip-flopping again.
So let's wait and see if Bush gets any more kissy kissy with Senator Joe Lieberman (D-FOX).
A final note: Lieberman replacing Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense in no way makes this scenario less possible. In fact, it might even make it easier. He's then picking from his cabinet, after all.
posted by Michael at 12/07/2005 09:42:00 PM
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